The following materials are meant to supplement the chapter “Logic: Probability and Inductive Reasoning” in Bowell & Kemp (Syllabus, Oct.11).
PROBABILITY: SOME BASICS
Basic theoretical probability (i.e. probability in theory):
Intuitive sense of probability:[1]
Experimental probability (estimate of probability based on past experience):
Calculating conditional probability:
Conditional probability and independence:
INDUCTIVE REASONING & PROBABILITY
Introducing inductive (as opposed to deductive) logic:
Scale of inductive strength:
Inductive generalization, as commonly used in scientific reasoning:
[1] See conversational Implicature, to help you understand the following claim on p.109 of the reading: “ordinary uses of ‘probably’ mean a probability of greater than ½, but typically carry a conversational implicature that the probability substantially exceeds that threshold.” (N.B. the video is titled “Conventional Implicature.” But its first half covers conversational implicature. The two kinds of implicature are different, as it will become clear during the second half.)